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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.