Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
